Vermont Maple “In the Middle”

Credit: Mark Isselhardt

As global maple syrup production increases the markets, communities, and business owners are facing changes. Vermont has a long cultural heritage of syrup production ranging from subsistence production to commercial activity for over 100 years. 2018 is no different… for every new maple enterprise setting up to tap 50,000 trees we are likely to have 10+ new hobby producers making their own syrup and selling the excess directly in their neighborhood.

Research on farm economics has demonstrated how farms can often get caught in the middle of the push and pull of dynamic business environments and consumer preferences. The 2008 text Food and the Mid-Level Farm (Lyson, Stevenson, Welsh) explains the dilemma that faces “agriculture in the middle.” The super-small farm can often maintain a specialty niche that serves local or direct clientele. It’s common that these farms might be part-time or lifestyle farms. They may be profitable but it may not matter. The largest scale farms  are  producing goods at low costs and high volumes and they are  serving broader markets that value uniform product, lower price points, and require sophisticated supply chain logistics. What’s left is the farm “in the middle”. These farms are full time jobs for their owner -operators that need to earn a livelihood from risky business activity. They are too big to be accepted in niche markets and too small to compete with the big players.

The recent maple price downturn has begun to reveal where the “middle maple producer” may be. Four years of maple finance benchmark analysis has shown how a reasonable owner livelihood can disappear as the business environment shifts. A small sample of 7,500-15,000 tap maple producers in VT has demonstrated the looming risk for a formerly viable owner-operated bulk syrup enterprise that can’t break even if market prices stay below $2.10 per pound. These businesses can be a too big to pivot into niche direct marketing and too small to compete in the larger wholesale markets. We don’t know where the sweet spot for a commercially viable “middle” operation will be but we do know not to assume it will stay in the same place forever. We also wait to see if a group of informed consumers that value the people and practices of “ag in the middle” will persist.

Trade wars, price uncertainty and agricultural branding

Photo Credit: Mark Isselhardt

Escalating trade disputes are reverberating through US farm sectors and our US specialty products. Farming sectors could become minor bargaining chips or worse, collateral damage, as high impact manufacturing interests drive the policies. In Vermont the two primary ag drivers of dairy and maple may get caught up in the fuss. Ironically, our suffering US dairy economy and dairy families have been pitted against Canadian farm owners and a supply management system that has facilitated viable milk prices for smaller farm operations. The liquid gold of maple flows freely across the US/Canadian border. At least it did. In 2017, 62% of Canadian syrup exports came to the United States ( US Maple Statistics)

Have Canadian imports been flooding US markets with cheap syrup? Until recently most US bulk syrup was purchased on parity with Canadian market price after currency exchange adjustments. Again, Canada has a market management strategy to stabilize prices (for better or worse) and US producers received the benefits of price predictability.

Branding could be equally important in future trade policy. In Vermont we have enjoyed an explosion of artisan cheese in the past 20 years. Vermont makes darn good cheese. But we fall prey to a cultural delay on developing the necessary protections to promote or protect our regional foods. For years many award winning Vermont cheeses have been “cheddars” “tomme” “french alpine”. Now we are seeing regionally named products like Rupert . Will US producers organize themselves to adopt the legal process verification that European food-rich regions have mastered with Champagne (the legal process)  and Cheddar (the verb!)?