Free Lunch, A Punch in the Face, and Continual Improvement

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“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” Dwight D. Eisenhower

“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Mike Tyson

I’m not sure if Tyson and Eisenhower are saying the same thing, but they are saying similar things; plans are important, but they go awry.  This insight applies to logging businesses particularly. Logging is not boxing or battle, but logging is a risk heavy business significantly influenced by external factors. Improvisation is an essential skill and planning helps you succeed in the heat of the moment.

There is a workshop next week offering  free lunch, industry discussion, business skills and technical knowledge to logging businesses. No disrespect to Tyson, but I have found in my work that not everybody has a plan. This workshop is a great place to get one started and to learn how to adjust when you feel the knuckles on your jaw. Offered by University of Vermont Extension, Forest Business, the class is worth 5.5 CFE (Consulting Forester Education) credits and 8 LEAP (Logger Education to Advance Professionalism) credits. This is a great opportunity for professional development. This class will help loggers and foresters understand the shifting economic landscape and stay current on the regulatory and policy front. It is a time to network with peers in the forest products sector and to pick the brains of industry leaders and educators. It is also time to learn business management and finance skills to help your company identify what’s important and where to focus effort.

While preparing for the workshops I have been reading Continuous Improvement in Logging, (CIL) by Steve Bick and Jeff Benjamin. An adept application of Theory of Constraints (TOC) to logging, CIL distills the ideas of CI (Continuous Improvement) providing examples of the productivity of logging operations. With detailed information on productivity and a thorough discussion of common bottlenecks for timber harvesting systems, the book dispenses management wisdom along with rigorous focus on identification of bottlenecks in logging operations. CIL introduces readers to The Goal, a business novel worth a read. The goal is defined as, “making money now and in the future.” This goal focuses all productive effort. Steve will be speaking at the workshop bringing productivity enhancing tools and techniques to those in attendance. These tools will help you continually improve your game, preparing you to avoid the knuckles and spend more time “making money that sticks.”

Punches and lunches lead to continual improvement!

Tell a logger or forester you know to join us or contact cplindgr@uvm.edu for more information.

2018 Business Skills Workshops for Logging Professionals—November 7th and 8th

UVM Extension will offer this free workshop for logging companies on November 7th (Rutland, VT) and November 8th (Hardwick,VT). Presentations will cover a range of topics from industry updates to marketing strategies and include new presentations not included in past years. Presenters include: Sam Lincoln (VT Dept of Forests, Parks & Recreation), Paul Frederick (VT Dept of Forests, Parks & Recreation), Chris Lindgren (UVM Extension), Christine McGowan (VT Sustainable Jobs Fund) and Steve Bick (Northeast Forests, LLC). Learn more about the program and how to register!

Maple Markets: International Trade Snap-Shot

US-Canada

Update: On October 1st 2018 the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was announced…details are still emerging (10/4/18) Original post written on 9/30/18. Canada placed a 10% tariff on US maple syrup exported into Canada in 2018. While some US syrup or US finished maple syrup goods do get sent to Canada the volume is small. This trade dispute retaliation from Canada is not expected to have huge impact on US maple syrup distribution. Canada exports far more syrup into the United States. The overall US-Canada trade situation that include steel, aluminum and other products  will have a more pronounced impact on maple equipment and manufactured goods crossing the US-Canada border.

Roughly 62% of Canadian export syrup reaches the United States. The result is that over half of maple syrup consumption in the United States is Canadian syrup. The UVM Extension Maple Business team ran a rough calculation on the 2017 value of Canadian syrup imported into the United States. The Canadian imports represent roughly 18 million maple taps at the prevailing US maple yield per tap.

A look at recent and defunct trade agreements…..

European Union

Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) was approved in 2017. CETA includes Canada and the European Union.  The agreement removes tariffs on Canadian syrup imported into the European Union. The US is not part of this agreement and US syrup is subject to an ~8% tariff when imported into the EU.

Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) Trade Agreement

This agreement between many nations was set to eliminate the 17.5% tariff on US (and Canadian) maple syrup entering Japan. Japan represents a significant existing export market for Canadian maple syrup and a possible growth area for US exports in the future. The United States pulled out of this trade agreement in 2017 and the tariffs on US maple remain in place.

The New Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) This agreement was made by the remaining TPP nations without the United States. Under that deal the tariffs on Canadian syrup imported into Pacific nations will be phased out in the next few years.

 

Dairy Summit and Industry Proposals

Posted by Betsy Miller, UVM Extension Farm Viability Coordinator

On August 13, 2018 Agri-Mark hosted a Dairy Summit in Albany, NY.  This was an opportunity for farmers and dairy industry representatives to discuss the current state of dairy pricing and to offer proposals for a new structure.

Proposals posted on the website share a common theme of supply management and price stabilization.  Many suggest a pro-active approach lead by co-ops.  Expansion of current farms and entry of new farms into the business are both areas that offer challenges to the idea of a quota system.   All seem to agree that this is a complex problem that doesn’t have an easy solution.

Proposals are available to read and comment on at this site:  https://dairyproposals2018.com

The UVM Extension Farm Viability program provides one on one business planning to farm owners in Vermont. For more information see the program summary page.

 

Vermont Maple “In the Middle”

Credit: Mark Isselhardt

As global maple syrup production increases the markets, communities, and business owners are facing changes. Vermont has a long cultural heritage of syrup production ranging from subsistence production to commercial activity for over 100 years. 2018 is no different… for every new maple enterprise setting up to tap 50,000 trees we are likely to have 10+ new hobby producers making their own syrup and selling the excess directly in their neighborhood.

Research on farm economics has demonstrated how farms can often get caught in the middle of the push and pull of dynamic business environments and consumer preferences. The 2008 text Food and the Mid-Level Farm (Lyson, Stevenson, Welsh) explains the dilemma that faces “agriculture in the middle.” The super-small farm can often maintain a specialty niche that serves local or direct clientele. It’s common that these farms might be part-time or lifestyle farms. They may be profitable but it may not matter. The largest scale farms  are  producing goods at low costs and high volumes and they are  serving broader markets that value uniform product, lower price points, and require sophisticated supply chain logistics. What’s left is the farm “in the middle”. These farms are full time jobs for their owner -operators that need to earn a livelihood from risky business activity. They are too big to be accepted in niche markets and too small to compete with the big players.

The recent maple price downturn has begun to reveal where the “middle maple producer” may be. Four years of maple finance benchmark analysis has shown how a reasonable owner livelihood can disappear as the business environment shifts. A small sample of 7,500-15,000 tap maple producers in VT has demonstrated the looming risk for a formerly viable owner-operated bulk syrup enterprise that can’t break even if market prices stay below $2.10 per pound. These businesses can be a too big to pivot into niche direct marketing and too small to compete in the larger wholesale markets. We don’t know where the sweet spot for a commercially viable “middle” operation will be but we do know not to assume it will stay in the same place forever. We also wait to see if a group of informed consumers that value the people and practices of “ag in the middle” will persist.

Trade wars, price uncertainty and agricultural branding

Photo Credit: Mark Isselhardt

Escalating trade disputes are reverberating through US farm sectors and our US specialty products. Farming sectors could become minor bargaining chips or worse, collateral damage, as high impact manufacturing interests drive the policies. In Vermont the two primary ag drivers of dairy and maple may get caught up in the fuss. Ironically, our suffering US dairy economy and dairy families have been pitted against Canadian farm owners and a supply management system that has facilitated viable milk prices for smaller farm operations. The liquid gold of maple flows freely across the US/Canadian border. At least it did. In 2017, 62% of Canadian syrup exports came to the United States ( US Maple Statistics)

Have Canadian imports been flooding US markets with cheap syrup? Until recently most US bulk syrup was purchased on parity with Canadian market price after currency exchange adjustments. Again, Canada has a market management strategy to stabilize prices (for better or worse) and US producers received the benefits of price predictability.

Branding could be equally important in future trade policy. In Vermont we have enjoyed an explosion of artisan cheese in the past 20 years. Vermont makes darn good cheese. But we fall prey to a cultural delay on developing the necessary protections to promote or protect our regional foods. For years many award winning Vermont cheeses have been “cheddars” “tomme” “french alpine”. Now we are seeing regionally named products like Rupert . Will US producers organize themselves to adopt the legal process verification that European food-rich regions have mastered with Champagne (the legal process)  and Cheddar (the verb!)?

Dairy Financial News: Update on USDA’s Margin Protection Program for 2018

The sign-up period for MPP coverage in 2018 will close on June 1, 2018.

If you’re shipping milk you should check out how the USDA has revamped the Margin Protection Program (MPP) for 2018. Premiums have dropped, especially for Tier I pricing (less than 5 million lbs of milk). Here’s how it works.

The program makes payments when the monthly margin between the U.S. all-milk price and national average feed costs falls below the level of coverage chosen by the producer. Above the basic $5 margin level for the first 5 million pounds there are supplemental coverage options available for purchase in 50-cent increments. Supplemental coverage can extend up to $8/cwt. The program pays on one-twelfth of a producer’s annual production history, multiplied by the percentage of supplemental coverage chosen, from 25% up to 90%, plus the remaining coverage provided on the farm’s production history at the basic $5 level. Once a farm enrolls in the MPP it is committed to the program through 2018. Farmers must have an up-to-date Form 1026, signifying that they meet conservation requirements, in order to participate.

For example, if you use 3,000,000 lbs milk production history and the $8.00 MPP level and elect to insure 90% of that production you could receive an estimated $13,897 in total payments. At a premium cost of $4,196, that’s a net return of $9,701 for the whole year, after premiums are covered. The January, February and March margins are set, and in the above scenario, the payout so far in 2018 is $8,798, more than covering the $4,196 premium. This program is worth revisiting!

For more information, follow this link to the MPP Decision Tool  where you can make inputs specific to your farm. The sign-up period for coverage in 2018 opened on April 9 and will close on June 1, 2018. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is allowing farmers to opt out of coverage for 2018. For more information, contact your local USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) and ask about MPP or read this MPP Factsheet.

 

New Vermont Maple Business Benchmark Report

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Photo Credit: Mark Isselhardt

UVM Extension has published the newest 2016 VT Maple Benchmark report. This report shows financial analysis and profitability for a group of syrup businesses that range from 2,500 to 20,000 taps. Download a copy of the 2016 report now. 

In 2016 maple market prices had dropped significantly but very high production yields for many participants resulted in stronger profitability for 2016 compared to 2015. Bulk maple producers showed a wide range of cost of production from $1.62 per pound to $2.52 per pound with an average cost of $2.00 per pound. Overall costs on a per pound basis declined in 2016 due to high production yields. Several historically high performing businesses, however, will be challenged to stay profitable as market prices drop below $2.25 per pound and/or they experience only “good-to-average” yields. This is a growing concern for maple sugar makers from 8,000-15,000 taps that rely on maple income for household income.

Many maple businesses have already or plan to diversify market channels. There is no guarantee that higher wholesale or direct market prices can compensate for the costs and time associated with serving those new customers. The reality, however, is that bulk maple businesses that drop below financial break-even levels will seek to find alternative ways to market syrup in order to stay in business. Several participating businesses in this project have demonstrated that a mixed marketing plan that includes bulk sales and some direct sales can preserve profitability and reduce the risk of uncontrollable bulk market prices.

The VT Maple Benchmark project will continue in 2018! Starting in May our business educators will begin completing 2017 financial analysis with maple sugar makers and sap only enterprises. Contact Mark Cannella for more information (Mark.Cannella@uvm.edu) . This year the project specifically needs more producers from 15,000 taps – 50,000 taps to register.

UVM Extension is also offering maple business planning assistance from May- December to Vermont sugar makers. Contact Mark  for more information on maple financial analysis and business planning assistance. Mark.Cannella@uvm.edu

 

Nominate a Farm for Vermont Dairy Farm of the Year

It is the nomination period for the Vermont Dairy Farm of the Year award. UVM Extension has an application form for you to nominate the farm you think exemplifies what an outstanding dairy is… great milk quality, innovation on the farm, progressive management practices, community service and ambassadorship for the industry are all characteristics of past recipients. Thanks to Richard, Bonnie and Tucker at Fairmont Farms for being great 2017 ambassadors for Vermont dairy producers!

Direct questions to either Tony Kitsos or Peggy Manahan ( peggy.manahan@uvm.edu ).

The application can be found on the web at this link http://go.uvm.edu/vdfya and click on “Nominate A Farmer”. Deadline is April 30!