immanence

I don’t usually write about local politics on this blog. But why not? Here’s my prediction for next Tuesday’s Burlington,* Vermont, mayoral election. Let this be a test of how good, or bad, I’ve gotten at observing my city’s politics.

(For outsiders: this is the city where Bernie Sanders cut his political chops as mayor for most of the 1980s. Since then, it’s been largely contested between two parties—Democrats and the further-left Progressives, with a diminishing group of Republicans and occasional independents to spice things up. At this point, it’s become something of a two-party system, just not the usual two. The city has little opinion polling to speak of, which is part of why I’ve pushed myself to write this. And while I’ve lived here almost 18 years, I’ve only been a citizen and voter for the last two. I’m also no expert at this, so take what follows with a grain of salt.)

Preamble

Burlington is a pretty politically active city, though I’m thinking it’s the die-hards, the true believers in democracy (who are many, and who tend to lean left), and older folks with time on their hands (some of them leftish boomers, some old-school conservatives) who dominate the vote on Town Meeting Day. This year, Max Tracy’s Progressive campaign to unseat Democratic mayor Miro Weinberger has galvanized a lot of youthful support, and gotten some good press coverage (not always supportive, but front page and long in column-inches from Seven Days). Miro’s arguments for “continuity” (which translates as fear of “radicalism”) are persuasive to a lot of people, but for others “The Pit” in the center of town has come to symbolize something, if not several things, unsatisfying about his nine years of rule.

This year’s mail-in ballot alters the math somewhat: by lowering the cost of voting (ballots even come with pre-stamped envelopes), it’s likely to increase the moderate and conservative vote, which in this case means support for Miro. Any Republicans who are out there—always a minority—are likely to support Miro as the devil they know and the least of all evils. Where they might not even feel inclined to vote, given the lack of a conservative candidate, the ease of the mail-in ballot is likely to increase their participation. More independent minded and Progressive leaning, Bernie-supporting young people are less disciplined about mailing in their ballots, or even reading their snail mail, than older residents. (Case in point: my campus’s Prog party just sent me an email saying “Over 6,000 Burlingtonians have already cast their ballots for Tuesday’s election. The average age of those voters? 57.”)

(I’m leaving aside the city council election, where four seats are up for grabs, though they’re all mostly contested by Progressives, former Progressives, and one or two Democrats.)

Verdict

Despite the strong challenges by Max and by African-born independent city councilor Ali Dieng, I think Miro is still likely to get the most votes, but not necessarily enough to get the 40% plurality he needs to win outright.

My prediction: Miro will get 38% (or something in the 30-45% range), Max will get 33% (also 30-45% range), Ali will get 22% (20-30% range), and others led by Will Emmons and Haik Bedrosian (2-4% each) will pick up the remainder. A runoff between Max and Miro is, for now, too close to call, though I am leaning toward a second-round win by Max, who is likely to pick up more from Ali Dieng supporters in the smaller batch of runoff voters.

Endorsement

I will be pleasantly surprised if Ali does better than one of the other two, or if Max wins outright. But none of the three are actually bad candidates when viewed on a national scale. (That’s not saying much, I know. If there’s one thing I would miss with a new mayor, it’s the opportunity to chat with Miro at his Wednesday “Mornings with Miro” at my local bagel shop, now virtual of course.)

That said, there are some important policy differences between them (though fewer than you’d find in most U.S. cities). And a less antagonistic relationship between mayor and city council—which is currently split between Progressives and Democrats, with the former holding a slight majority—would be a good thing for the city. For that reason I would endorse either Ali or Max. And I would afterward push them to do the right thing, proactively and consultatively, on the host of issues they both talk about, including racial justice, affordable housing, locally focused economic development, climate change, and the like.

And also on the F-35, which I’m reminded of every time the bloody thing roars over my head.

*Burlington, Vermont, is located on the shores of Bitawbagok, the Lake Between (Lake Champlain), on traditional lands of the Western Abenaki/Wôbanakiak. Some call it Balitan, others Odzihoszek.