UKR-TAZ

Writing in Foreign Policy, Michael Weiss, editor of the Russian media analysis magazine The Interpreter, shares 10 reasons why Russia is likely to invade Ukraine.

The reasons include the recent Russian troop build-up along the border; the IMF bailout of Ukraine (which is now more than the $15 billion Russia had earlier promised Ukraine); Putin’s relationship with Obama; the West’s divided and weak response to what Russia has done so far; recent Kremlin signals; Russia’s military reliance on southern and eastern Ukrainian industries (an underacknowledged but important factor); Russian government and media distortions of events; and what Weiss calls “kombinatsiya” and “modernizatsiya.”

While there are also clear reasons for Russia not to invade, Weiss makes a good case. The full article is worth reading.

Worrying developments in Ukraine over the last few days include the killing of far-right leader Olexander Muzychko, a.k.a. Sashko Bilyj, in a shoot-out with police; the attempted storming of Parliament by armed Right Sector militants today; the growing presence of Russian armies alongside Ukraine’s eastern border (along with persistent and growing rumors of an impending invasion); and preparation for war on both sides.

Here are some English-language sources with useful background information on these events.

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In “Putin, Crimea, and the Legitimacy Trap,” international affairs scholars J. Paul Goode and Marlene Laruelle outline some of the other contexts around Russia’s move into Crimea.

Read the article in Open Democracy.

In “Dangerous Liaisons: Ukraine and the Western Slavists,” Rossen Djagalov calls for “a certain minimum of political hygiene and scholarly honesty” among observers of the Ukraine crisis. The article provides an example of the kind of nuanced reflection that navigates the terrain between the perspectives of Snyder and McGovern (see previous post).

A few excerpts:

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