UKR-TAZ

Writing in Foreign Policy, Michael Weiss, editor of the Russian media analysis magazine The Interpreter, shares 10 reasons why Russia is likely to invade Ukraine.

The reasons include the recent Russian troop build-up along the border; the IMF bailout of Ukraine (which is now more than the $15 billion Russia had earlier promised Ukraine); Putin’s relationship with Obama; the West’s divided and weak response to what Russia has done so far; recent Kremlin signals; Russia’s military reliance on southern and eastern Ukrainian industries (an underacknowledged but important factor); Russian government and media distortions of events; and what Weiss calls “kombinatsiya” and “modernizatsiya.”

While there are also clear reasons for Russia not to invade, Weiss makes a good case. The full article is worth reading.