Assessment of a Risky Proposition

Posted on November 18, 2010 by jmsmith

Milk sample waiting to be tested.

The livestock newswires are heating up about the recent release of a site-specific risk assessment and review of that assessment for the National Biosecurity and Agro-Defense Facility (NBAF) to be built in Manhattan, KS. This facility is intended to house research with foreign animal disease agents, currently conducted in aging facilities on Plum Island off of Long Island, as well as with emerging diseases including those with zoonotic potential. In laboratory lingo, the proposed facility will be designed to accommodate biosafety level (BSL) 3Ag and BSL-4 work. Vaccine production capability is planned for the facility as well.

A brief history of the process is in order. In 2006 the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) put out a call to find a site to replace and improve upon the existing facility at Plum Island. Of the initial 29 sites to submit letters of interest, 18 were selected to provide additional information.  These sites were each visited in 2007. After review, 5 sites (Manhattan, KS; Athens, GA; San Antonio, TX; Butner, NC; and Flora, MS) were invited to submit information for review of environmental impact (in comparison with building a new facility on Plum Island. (The DHS final environmental impact statement (pdf) can be found here.) In early 2009 DHS announced its selection of Manhattan, KS as the preferred site with the expectation that construction would begin as early as 2010. However, before construction could begin, appropriations language required DHS to complete a site-specific biosafety and biosecurity mitigation assessment (available through link at top right here) and directed the National Research Council (of the National Academies of Science) to conduct a review of that risk assessment (available here). These reports were released on November 15.

A risk assessment analyzes the chances and consequences of something going wrong.  What could go wrong? A tornado (Manhattan is in tornado alley), an earthquake (a fault that is not very active is located in Kansas, east of Manhattan), faulty ventilation, faulty procedures, or intentional breach of security? Interestingly for a DHS assessment, it did not address the latter. It did address accidental release of infectious agent by aerosol, liquid, solid, or fomite (carried on person or clothing) transmission routes. What would the consequences be? Any release from a site within 200 miles of 10% of the feeder cattle in the U.S., on major interstate transportation routes for livestock, and situated next door to a veterinary college and a college sports facility could have enormous consequences. A release of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus would be especially crippling for all businesses associated with domestic food-producing animals (aside from poultry).

Only two other laboratories in the world conduct BSL-4 research with large animals and one of these facilities prohibits research with FMD (an essential subject of research for the NBAF). There are several BSL-4 facilities located in major population centers, but none of these operates large animal research facilities. Of the facilities around the world which have experienced accidental releases of FMD virus resulting in animal infection (14 releases since 1960), most were engaged in vaccine production.

DHS is confident the risks considered can be adequately mitigated. The NRC report suggests there is an alarmingly high chance of an accidental breach (70%) sometime over the 50-year operating life of the planned facility. Construction of the NBAF is expected to begin in 2012.

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Value of Contingency Planning

Posted on November 15, 2010 by jmsmith

On 9/11/2001 how many airlines switched to contingency plan “grounded”?  Airlines deal with contingencies every day.  Weather and other factors lead to delays or cancellations of flights on an unpredictable but expected basis.  Usually these factors impact flights over a limited portion of the country.  A notable exception was the nationwide grounding of flights on 9-11.  It seems somewhat obvious to an outsider that a cancellation of all flights for a period of days could have dramatic consequences for businesses associated with air flight and should be a subject of contingency planning.   But what incentive does a business have to plan for an unlikely yet catastrophic scenario?

It all depends on the goals of the business and the individuals running it.  Before you can make a plan, you need to understand your long-term goals.  A business in the sunset phase of its existence likely will not rebuild.  A growing business likely would find a way forward even if needing to change course a bit.  Being clear about your goals and your present business situation will make it easier to make appropriate decisions in a disaster.

What is the worst case scenario in your business?  A fire burns down the facility? Death of a principal partner?  No one wants to (or can) buy your product for a few days to weeks?  Do you have a contingency plan for these significant events?

At the recent New England Extension In-Service, Bob Milligan, business coach and consultant, described the grief cycle that is normally triggered when individuals or businesses experience a crisis or disaster.  Change experienced as a loss, such as a fire or two unprofitable years due to circumstances outside of one’s control, will trigger the grief cycle.  The early phase is usually marked by reactions that can be characterized as shock or denial.  Then, and not necessarily in order, grief will be expressed as anger/frustration/shame, depression/detachment, dialogue/bargaining/search for meaning, and finally acceptance and ability to move on.  It is important to understand that these are normal reactions to loss and that the emotions accompanying grief may impair one’s decision-making ability.  This fact underscores the importance of contingency planning during “normal” times so that options can be compared with previously thought out plans of action.

This need for contingency planning is one of the key drivers of the Vermont “Prepare to Survive a Bio-Disaster” workshops and subsequent projects engaging farmers, agricultural stakeholders and community members in thinking about how to respond to a highly contagious animal disease emergency.  Above all else, the most important outcome of these efforts is to get people thinking about what they would do and would want others to do if faced with such a catastrophe.

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Normal Accidents Theory

Posted on November 11, 2010 by jmsmith

Charles Perrow, Professor Emeritus of Sociology of Yale University, wrote “Normal Accidents: Living with High Risk Technologies.” He defines normal accidents as “the interaction of multiple failures that are not in a direct operational sequence” (p. 23).  A good example is Three Mile Island.  A failure in one component that was not detectable by control room operators led to a misinterpretation of the reason for loss of coolant that was reported by instruments in the control room.  The operators’ response led to a partial meltdown of the reactive core and a release of radioactivity (equivalent to a chest x-ray) and flurry of anti-nuclear activity.  Fortunately, from a public health perspective, the Three Mile Island accident was inconsequential.  However, not all normal accidents will be.  In discussing the Deepwater Horizon accident, Rutgers University Professor Lee Clarke provides this perspective:

Consider the idea that the disaster was a “low probability/high consequence” event. From the outside looking in, BP’s accident qualifies. The “high consequence” part is obvious. It was “low probability” because big blowouts are rare, so the event caught us all by surprise.

From the “inside,” though, it’s possible the disaster probabilities didn’t matter much. Perhaps there were good reasons to think the risk was worth taking. Maybe it was an “acceptable risk,” as we call it. If so, a large, uncontrollable blowout was just a matter of time.

How many of us in agriculture work with acceptable risks on a daily basis?  (I hope the answer is obvious.)  Retrofitting old tractors with roll-over protection systems is a tangible way to avoid certain risks that were previously “acceptable”.  Yet, when it comes to biosecurity risks in agricultural production, we might do well to change our threshold for acceptable risk.  We move livestock to remote pasture, into barns, to fairs, to sale, and to slaughter without giving much thought to the biosecurity of the conveyances or venues and the potential risks involved.  If a pig infected with a highly contagious disease like foot-and-mouth disease were in a show barn adjacent to a cattle barn at a show out-of-state and animals returned home before visible signs were detected, we would soon find out what a high consequence normal accident is like.

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Unity of Effort Plus Local Knowledge

Posted on October 5, 2010 by jmsmith

Two recent commentaries on the BP oil spill have indicated a major shift is needed in how the US responds to major disasters.  On September 9, I caught the end of an NPR interview with Thad Allen, retired U.S. Coast Guard Admiral.  He said, “You have to generate unity of effort.” He went on to say, “We will never have another major event in this country that does not involve a major public participation, whether it’s Web-based, social media, through non-governmental organizations or faith-based organizations. We have to figure out a way to better integrate all those resources, passion and commitment that exist out there. Because if we don’t, they’re going to be disaffected and you’re going to break down that unity of effort you’re trying to achieve.”

He also alluded to challenges to federalism saying, “Having worked this oil spill and Hurricane Katrina, there are fascinating issues of federalism here and the respective roles of state and local governments and the federal government.”

I find it curious that anyone can expect a bureaucracy to respond nimbly and effectively to a disaster.

It took the BP oil spill to convince Shirley Laska, University of New Orleans sociologist, otherwise.  In an article posted in the Public Entity Risk Institute newsletter (October 2010 PERIscope), she writes,

“. . .my conviction about the key role of the federal level of government in response to a major disaster/catastrophe has been shaken. I thought as others that the challenges might have been idiosyncratic to the particular administration that had been in power and the reorganization/diminishment of the capacity of FEMA as a result of the pendulum swing to responding to terrorist attacks as the prime risk focus of our government the decade Katrina occurred. However, that analysis has not held up with the BP oil event. A different political party controls the administration; FEMA is not the lead federal agency in this one and there have been five years to repair the federal capacity for non-terrorist disaster response.

If you had taken the Katrina “script” and simply replaced the name with the “BP blowout,” the observations and thus the negative assessment would almost have been identical. “Who’s in charge? Where is the organization of the response? Why is a response taking so long?” Delay in response harms people unimaginably and also kills people – through life-threatening rescue delays, through recovery trauma, etc. A delayed activity is a failed activity. It is not just a term whose harm can be neutralized once the activity finally occurs. “How can it be that the basic elements of an “average” response were so difficult to achieve?””

Are there solutions? David Brooks, New York Times columnist, headed an op-ed on June 17, “Trim the ‘Experts,’ Trust the Locals.” One of Dr. Laska’s policy prescriptions for better response is to incorporate engaged citizens in the response—community stakeholders and local governments.

It just so happens that that is the starting point of the UVM (AFRI) biosecurity project currently underway,

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It’s National Farm Safety and Health Week

Posted on September 23, 2010 by jmsmith

Feeding time at UVM’s Miller Farm

“Every day, the lives of Americans are touched by the hard work and dedication of our Nation’s farmers, ranchers, and farmworkers.  The food they produce through their tireless efforts fuels our Nation, nourishes our bodies, and sustains millions at home and around the globe.”  With these words Barack Obama began his proclamation of the week of September 19 – 25 as National Farm Safety and Health Week.

Farmers work with potentially hazardous equipment, animals, and conditions on a daily basis.  Sometimes they need a reminder to take routine precautions.  SAFETY IS NO ACCIDENT.

The Vermont Agency of Ag recently produced a sobering 2-part video about farm safety, A Farm Accident Could Happen to Any One of Us.  The videos are posted on YouTube and can also be found at the Agency website.  On the 28th, Vermont Rebates for Roll Bars will be launched to assist farmers in retrofitting older tractors with this life-saving safety equipment.

Need more information on agricultural safety?

The National Education Center for Agricultural Safety has a nice list of resources available.  Last year I checked out the National Ag Safety Database interactive training course on sharing the road with agricultural vehicles.  This is a good time of year to take a look at that one.

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September is Disaster Preparedness Month

Posted on September 1, 2010 by jmsmith

Are you Ready?

Do you have a family emergency plan?

Would you be OK for 72 hours?

Face it: No one wants to deal with an emergency or disaster.  But when seconds count and lives are on the line, knowing the right thing to do can make a difference in your life or the life of a loved one, friend, or community member.

Face it: You need to plan ahead.  Get the training and resources you need to respond quickly and effectively whether it is for yourself, your family, your business, or your community.

Face it: You need help planning.  Good plans aren’t created in a vacuum.

Find it: Extension and other resources are a click away.  Here are a few you might want to check out:

Family Disaster Plan: you can fill this one out on line and print it out!

Get a Kit: American Red Cross list of supplies to have ready-to-go with you in case of evacuation or other emergency where you would be on your own for up to 3 days.

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Traceability Framework

Posted on September 1, 2010 by jmsmith

For 2 days at the end of August, almost 200 state veterinarians and livestock industry representatives met in Denver to share suggestions for and concerns about the USDA’s traceability framework, announced in February of this year.

The National Institute for Animal Agriculture and US Animal Health Association jointly sponsored this forum on animal traceability to coincide with the release of draft guidance developed by the Traceability Regulatory Working Group.  This was a unique opportunity to see a draft of a regulation prior to its release as a proposed rule with the standard 60-to-90 day window for public comment.  That is expected to happen in April 2011.

I went along to see how these groups would facilitate development of a consensus and find out more about traceability needs and concerns around the country.  The stage was set by one of the state vets who clearly stated that this forum was for productive discussion.  Essentially, naysayers were not welcome.  I found it interesting that all of the people I talked with had some naysayers in their state and they all were saying the same things and had not changed their tune even with the USDA’s abandonment of pursuing a national animal identification system (NAIS).  From my understanding of the situation, small holder livestock or poultry producers raising animals for their own or local (in-state) consumption could choose not to participate (in NAIS or the new framework) and this would have minimal impact on the effectiveness of the program.  It would, however, potentially put those producers at a disadvantage for receiving assistance from state animal health authorities in an emergency.

Personally, I am glad that the USDA has taken a new approach to the challenge of traceability.  The best explanation I heard of the difference between NAIS and the new framework was that the bookends have changed.  Instead of having a goal of tracking animals from birth to death (NAIS), the new framework’s goal is to track animals that cross state lines.  Some would say we are already doing that.  Animals moving from one state to another are required to have valid Certificates of Veterinary Inspection.  But if these are paper-based and tied to metal ear tags, like the orange Bang’s tags or silver “brite” tags, think about how long it would take to trace an animal if your state imports 10,000 animals a year.  Right now tuberculosis, TB, is on the move in cattle and the current system is proving inadequate to economically and efficiently conduct traces.  If the disease was a fast-moving disease like foot-and-mouth disease, the current system would be practically useless.

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Butterwick Farms

Posted on August 17, 2010 by jmsmith
 

Dr. Julie Smith talks with Butterwick Farms owner/operator John Roberts about the her grant-funded project, "Costs and Challenges Associated with Developing and Implementing a Community-Wide Biosecurity Plan." Photo by Cheryl Dorschner

Today I visited Butterwick Farm, owned by John and Lisa Roberts, in West Cornwall, Vt, with Cheryl Dorschner, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Senior Communications Professional.  It turns out that the biosecurity project I am leading has been selected by the College to be featured in an upcoming publication.  Cheryl wanted to interview one of the case farms participating in the project and get some photos.  She kindly shared a couple with me.  We picked a very photogenic day, showing up as the milk truck driver was finishing his routine there.  It was quite a sight seeing the milk truck backed up to the milk house, the front bumper just barely out of the intersection.  We saw many dump trucks go by hauling chopped hay to the neighboring farm.  As John and his son are planning on starting up a butter making venture on the farm in the near future, it is especially evident why biosecurity is important to them.

John had this to say about participating in the biosecurity project:“I want more awareness; I want a plan; I want to never have to use it.”

The last sentiment is shared by all of us engaged in planning for a highly contagious disease emergency such as foot-and-mouth disease.

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Bennington Battle Day

Posted on August 16, 2010 by jmsmith

A view of Bennington, VT from Carpenter Hill.

This was a new holiday to me when I arrived in Vermont. I tried scheduling a project requiring assistance from Agency of Agriculture personnel one August 16 when I learned that this date was a state holiday. Interestingly enough, it turns out the battle was actually fought across the state line in New York. But the Green Mountain Boys were there and we in Vermont celebrate the victory they helped achieve over General Burgoyne during the Revolutionary War.

Colonel Seth Warner's statue at the Bennington Battle Monumen

Today I talked with an Extension colleague in Texas who has helped develop a communications strategy to reach livestock and poultry producers who aren’t tied into networks of commercial production channels. It’s called the Animal Health Network and can be adapted to any state. Basically it is a way for the state veterinarian to provide information or alerts to backyard or hobby farm livestock and poultry owners through Extension and feed retailers. Michigan has been implementing the concept this year. This is something Vermont should consider doing.

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What Does Exercising Have to do with Ag Emergency Preparedness?

Posted on July 13, 2010 by jmsmith

Find out by watching Across the Fence just after the noon  news Tuesday July 13 on WCAX,  Channel 3.  Tim Bouton, Senior Planner with the Addison County Regional Planning Commission, and I discuss why we need to practice and how to exercise emergency plans.

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