How’s this for a prediction of how the first six months of a Bernie campaign for Democratic Nominee will go?:
1) There will be an initial modest flurry of attention from the MSM because they are bored and want a horse race. “But of course he can’t win” will be a background drumbeat of their coverage. (See R. Merton, self-fulfilling prophecy).
2) Bernie will choose a few narratable issues and hammer them over and over (it’s what he does). The MSM will barely address the actual issues he’s hammering on, but will talk endlessly about whether or not populist positions are good strategy. They will mostly conclude they are not, because polls will show that most people think Bernie can’t win and the populist issues the media are ignoring — e.g., fast track, bank regulation — are unknown to a majority of voters. They will show no sense of irony when they say this.
3) The Hillary camp will say little or nothing directly about Bernie. They are already under pressure to take more economically populist stands, and so it’s likely she will make a few statements that sound vaguely populist. (I’d encourage the left not to get too excited when this happens. This early stage is also a good time to make promises you never intend on keeping, as later in the campaign nobody will remember.)