{"id":8244,"date":"2015-05-07T09:44:01","date_gmt":"2015-05-07T14:44:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/?p=8244"},"modified":"2021-06-14T07:40:33","modified_gmt":"2021-06-14T12:40:33","slug":"shake-up-in-oil-country","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/2015\/05\/07\/shake-up-in-oil-country\/","title":{"rendered":"Shake-up in oil country"},"content":{"rendered":"

There is a lot being said about the unexpected rout of the long-ruling Progressive Conservative government in the oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta by the socialist New Democrats. Some of it (on the left) is euphoric and over the top — which is understandable given the seemingly helpless state of the left across much of\u00a0North America. But the implications of this shakeup in the northern heart of the\u00a0oil industry are worth pondering.<\/p>\n

Among the NDP’s campaign promises were\u00a0raising the corporate tax rate from 10% to 12%, carrying out an oil-royalty review,\u00a0increasing income taxes on the top 10% of earners, raising the minimum wage to C$15 an hour, funneling any new energy-royalty revenue to a savings fund, banning<\/span> corporate (and union) political party donations, and withdrawing provincial support from the controversial Northern Gateway pipeline<\/a> project.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Here are some thoughts on what this political shake-up means for the environment and the left.<\/p>\n

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Writing for The Tyee<\/em>, one of Canada’s best independent leftish online magazines, Mitchell Anderson sees the NDP victory as a defeat for the “politics of fear”<\/a>:<\/p>\n

“Alberta kept a mere $4.38 per barrel of oil in 2013. That same year, our neighbours in Alaska managed around $38 while Norway raked in over $80. Why has Alberta given away this resource so cheaply? Because we have been led to believe that this is best we can do.” […]<\/p>\n

“Canada remains the second richest country in the world based on per capita resource wealth \u2014 yet for some reason we can\u2019t afford postal delivery. The root of this endemic Canadian problem is fear. Fear that companies will pack up their capital and go elsewhere if we drive a harder bargain, or claim more control over this incredible endowment.” […]<\/span><\/p>\n

“[Prime Minister] Harper himself has made fear a defining feature of his government, stoking terror about everything from terrorism to a carbon tax. But what if Canadians stopped being scared? What if Canada \u2014 as Norway has so profitably done \u2014 called the bluff of extractive industries that have feasted on our resources? It would have been hard to imagine just a month ago, but Alberta may be the pivot point in this national transformation.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Writing on Facebook, a green activist friend of mine adds that\u00a0“The great thing is that the voters ignored the warnings of big business and the endorsement of the PCs from all four major newspapers<\/a>.” (Add to that list the national Globe and Mail<\/em>, which with its social liberalism and\u00a0fiscal conservatism aims to represent the pragmatic center of Canada’s ruling elite. Except that national newspapers don’t typically have much influence in Alberta.)<\/p>\n

Vice<\/em> columnist Drew Brown provides some historical context<\/a> to support his\u00a0argument that this shift was not sudden, but that Albertans were simply waiting for a reasonable alternative to appear:<\/p>\n

“The longstanding conventional wisdom is that Albertans are so deeply, inherently right wing that the only party that could replace the Progressive Conservatives would be some straight-up regressive ones.<\/p>\n

“But the fact that so many people came to [former PC leader Alison] Redford’s defense in 2012 [against the right-wing opposition Wildrose Alliance Party] shows that most of contemporary Alberta doesn’t actually want to live in a redneck libertarian nightmare world. People have been looking for an out from the Tories for a while, and suddenly the NDP have provided one. It helps that Rachel Notley is terrifyingly sensible compared to her competitors…”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Writing in the New Republic<\/a>, anti-poverty activist and one-time Calgary NDP candidate Dan Meades writes:<\/p>\n

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“A year of plummeting oil prices and the layoffs they wrought showed many Albertans how flimsy the economic plan was in the province, predicated as it was on a presumption of endless abundance. Falling oil prices led to an austerity budget from the sitting Progressive Conservative government. We were told that as long as we gave oil sands companies total control, we would reap the economic rewards. Once that was proven to be untrue, the larger conservative narrative crumbled<\/em>.” […]<\/span><\/p>\n

“This election has the potential to fundamentally change the nature of the energy industry in North America, and to challenge the largely unproven claims that left cannot steward the economy and the environment simultaneously.” <\/span><\/p>\n

That\u00a0is reason enough why\u00a0greens\u00a0should not only wish them luck, but\u00a0do all we can to support the grassroots activists who can pressure this new government to do what it says it will do, and to do it well. It’s Alberta, with not much of a grassroots left, let alone a green one, so it will be hard work, with inevitable compromises and disappointments along the way. And with a party of political rookies<\/a> — nurses, union stewards, school board trustees, and a sociology student, among others — ideals can go a certain distance, but when countered by pragmatic realities, they may quickly fade.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Energy policy analyst\u00a0Andrew Leach argues in Canada’s leading newsweekly Macleans<\/em><\/a>\u00a0that the changes the NDP might impose are hardly revolutionary — probably just a moderate shift in how the energy industry is managed. Summarizing his analysis, he writes,<\/p>\n

“[T]he first take-away is that there\u2019s not a lot of meat on the bones of some of the positions put forward by the NDP. They\u2019ll call a commission on royalties, assess whether or not to stimulate refineries, be a leader on greenhouse-gas emissions, and save more of our resource revenues.<\/p>\n

“The next steps\u2014what royalty changes they\u2019re prepared to consider, and how they\u2019ll trade off\u00a0royalties versus pace of development; what policies will be used to stimulate refining if the commission determines we\u2019re not doing enough of it; what types of greenhouse-gas-emissions\u00a0policies the NDP would enact to achieve its objectives; or how a\u00a0larger Heritage Fund would be\u00a0managed\u2014are not fully fleshed out.<\/p>\n

“Perhaps that\u2019s what we should expect from a party that\u00a0has not had the benefit of\u00a0a large bureaucracy testing potential policies. Overall, it\u2019s hard to find clear motivation for\u00a0fear or for comfort; those who believe the NDP will do crazy things have more than enough room to make those assumptions, while those who believe they won\u2019t will find comfort from these answers, as well.”<\/p>\n

The stakes for success in a moderate change in the management of Alberta’s oil-centered economy are nevertheless high. If the NDP could succeed in reining in the “extreme oil”\u00a0bubble\u00a0of recent years and<\/em> present a viable model to satisfy\u00a0Albertans’ social and economic needs, it will be significant and could prompt the federal NDP — Canada’s official opposition party in Ottawa — to revive its\u00a0own (somewhat dormant) left-green ideals. <\/span><\/p>\n

Which could<\/em> shake up the continent.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"ngp\"<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

For more, see “Five takeaways from the NDP breakthrough in Alberta<\/a>” (The Tyee<\/em>) and “Leftist Party’s Win in Alberta May Affect Future of Oil Sands<\/a>” (New York Times<\/em>).<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There is a lot being said about the unexpected rout of the long-ruling Progressive Conservative government in the oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta by the socialist New Democrats. Some of it (on the left) is euphoric and over the top — which is understandable given the seemingly helpless state of the left across much of\u00a0North […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":99,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[196,691215],"tags":[123629,123630,123631,123530,280],"class_list":["post-8244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ecoculture","category-politics_postpolitics","tag-alberta","tag-left-green-politics","tag-ndp","tag-petropolitics","tag-socialism"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4IC4a-28Y","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6546,"url":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/2013\/03\/11\/sighting-oil\/","url_meta":{"origin":8244,"position":0},"title":"Sighting Oil","author":"Adrian J Ivakhiv","date":"March 11, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"While it's been out for several months now, the current issue of Imaginations: Journal of Cross-Cultural Image Studies, a special issue on Sighting Oil, deserves more press than it's gotten. The journal is housed at the University of Alberta, which makes it particularly well situated to critically observe the development\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Eco-culture"","block_context":{"text":"Eco-culture","link":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/category\/ecoculture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.csj.ualberta.ca\/imaginations\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/3.2Cover-791x1024.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1269,"url":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/2010\/05\/25\/spillcam-reality\/","url_meta":{"origin":8244,"position":1},"title":"Spillcam reality","author":"Adrian J Ivakhiv","date":"May 25, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"I've been wanting to post something about the images of the Gulf oil spill (or, rather, of the unmitigated man made deep water volcanic vent of crude oil and gas) -- about what they indicate (i.e. directly inform us about), what they symbolize (i.e., mean) and iconize (look like), and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Visual culture"","block_context":{"text":"Visual culture","link":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/category\/image_nation\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Oil-spill-1.jpg","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2010\/05\/Oil-spill-1-thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":14203,"url":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/2025\/08\/19\/the-axis-of-oil\/","url_meta":{"origin":8244,"position":2},"title":"The axis of oil","author":"Adrian J Ivakhiv","date":"August 19, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"There are three main hypotheses explaining Donald Trump's eagerness to please Vladimir Putin. 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The speakers include Kim TallBear (Sisseton-Wahpeton Oyate Dakota\/University of Alberta), Chris Anderson (M\u00e9tis\/University of Alberta), and Brenda Macdougall (M\u00e9tis\/University of Ottawa), with a response from Darren Ranco (Penobscot\/University of\u2026","rel":"","context":"With 3 comments","block_context":{"text":"With 3 comments","link":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/2023\/04\/27\/indigenous-sovereignty-event-at-uvm\/#comments"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2023\/04\/image-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2023\/04\/image-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2023\/04\/image-1.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2023\/04\/image-1.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2023\/04\/image-1.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2023\/04\/image-1.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12459,"url":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/2022\/03\/27\/this-is-a-fossil-fuel-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":8244,"position":5},"title":"“This is a fossil fuel war”","author":"Adrian J Ivakhiv","date":"March 27, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The invasion of Ukraine has shifted media attention away from many other things, Covid and climate among them. 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