{"id":11159,"date":"2020-10-23T07:55:54","date_gmt":"2020-10-23T12:55:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/?p=11159"},"modified":"2021-06-10T09:45:49","modified_gmt":"2021-06-10T14:45:49","slug":"the-secret-ballot-id-affect-electoral-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/2020\/10\/23\/the-secret-ballot-id-affect-electoral-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"The secret ballot \u201cid\u201d: affect & electoral politics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Last night’s presidential debate was, in many ways, superfluous: if a U.S. citizen had not already made up their mind who they will vote for (or not already voted<\/a>), it’s because they haven’t been paying attention. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is one factor pollsters and predictors of every stripe have not gotten good at accounting for, which can still have an impact. I call this the \u201csecret ballot factor.\u201d For all the things that went wrong<\/a> in the 2016 presidential elections\u2014the \u201chorserace\u201d media coverage that enabled a character like Donald Trump to take control of one of the two major parties, the levels of disinformation (from multiple sources) saturating so many levels of public culture and online media, and all the rest\u2014this one factor has not been well understood nor extensively studied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What I\u2019m referring to is the psychological, emotional<\/a>, and affective<\/a>, dimensions underlying the secret ballot<\/a>. The fact that Americans vote behind a privacy screen, and that no one will ultimately know who you voted for, gives the moment of voting a certain psychological potency: at that moment of (figuratively) “pulling the switch,” what you feel somewhere deeper<\/em> than at the level of conversational culture can come through to the surface and voice itself through your pen-wielding hand. This is the level where people vote with their gut, not their head. (Mail-in ballots are different in this respect, and I\u2019ll get to them in a minute.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Most American voters knew who they were going to vote for in 2016, and they went to the voting booth and voted for that person. The role of affect<\/a> and emotion<\/a> in deciding whom to vote on this level is better known<\/a>, albeit not well understood. (Part of this debate<\/a> has been that over the “shy Trump voter<\/a>“.) What I’m referring to is more specific than that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think that there were enough<\/em> American voters who felt, on a gut level, that they wanted change from the \u201cestablishment,\u201d who might have vacillated or even said they will vote for the establishment candidate (Clinton) before<\/em> they walked into the voting booth and stared themselves in the face, and who at the last second allowed themselves to give voice to the part of their psyche that speaks only in that void of one, that toilet cubicle of the mind that writes bizarre graffiti when no one is looking and no one will ever know. They voted Trump despite their \u201cbetter,\u201d more public self. There were enough of them to make a critical difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(I know that’s an empirical claim that requires empirical support, which I’m not prepared to give here, and which I’m not sure has been or even could<\/em> be easily studied.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year we need to ask, again, what\u2019s lurking in that mute psychic underbelly of the body politic. How many people who\u2019ve publicly voiced their discontent with Trump will, at the moment of truth, allow themselves to go with him again? And how many people who’ve been publicly supporting him will instead pull the switch to derail his re-election?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before Thursday\u2019s debate, it was my belief that the latter number\u2014people who will jump ship at the last minute\u2014is much higher than the former number. The last four years have deeply altered the psychic underbelly of America and, however much they publicly avow the same commitments to Trump\u2019s talking points, I believe that a lot of Republicans are tired of doing that. Deep down they know how incredible, how ludicrous, and how deeply embarrassing it is to support someone like that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But last night’s debate showed a strong Trump\u2014one committed to spouting one lie after another to make his confidently blustering case\u2014and a relatively weak, meek, and aged Biden. That strong performance will give wavering Trump supporters the confidence to go with him another four years. On the psychological level that we are talking about here, Trump\u2019s lies don\u2019t matter for much. Undecided voters will mostly not recognize them, or not be too bothered by them. If they catch any post-debate commentary, it is as likely to be from Fox News (all Trump, all the time, with rarely any questioning of anything he said) as from any other place. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden, in his turn, did not radiate the kind of confidence, leadership, or even trustworthiness that appeals on the affective level I am talking about. On the contrary, it radiated weariness–which may reflect a general weariness all of us feel, but which is not a formula for winning the political “id<\/a>.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The one factor that protects us, more than ever, from this \u201csecret ballot id\u201d is that so many people are voting by mail. When you do that, you\u2019re more likely to vote according to your public reason, not your private demons. This also means it\u2019s more likely that families and households will vote together, with lights glaring as they prepare to mark their ballots, fold and stamp and mail them. Voting will be less unpredictable. Given what polls are showing (and polls are always public), Trump\u2019s chances don\u2019t look so good there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All this means that the number of voters this “secret ballot factor” will affect is a relatively small one. But in the electoral system we have, it can still be a significant one. To make a relevant difference with this factor, those who\u2019ve had enough of Trump need to keep talking<\/em> with their vacillating, undecided, and reason-impaired friends. Talk\u2014genuine, face-to-face conversation (and not ranting)\u2014is the one thing that can make a difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last night’s presidential debate was, in many ways, superfluous: if a U.S. citizen had not already made up their mind who they will vote for (or not already voted), it’s because they haven’t been paying attention. 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Note that this post takes the Stoic strategy of preparing for the worst, so as to be pleasantly surprised when the worst fails to come to pass. Deep breath, Americanos. Let\u2019s brace ourselves for what may be the messiest, most\u00a0litigious and disruptive Interregnum\u00a0in U.S. history. (\u201cInterregnum\u201d =\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Politics"","block_context":{"text":"Politics","link":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/category\/politics_postpolitics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/11\/literal-hell-stoic-negative-visualization-gratitude-thankfulness-1200x675-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/11\/literal-hell-stoic-negative-visualization-gratitude-thankfulness-1200x675-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/11\/literal-hell-stoic-negative-visualization-gratitude-thankfulness-1200x675-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/11\/literal-hell-stoic-negative-visualization-gratitude-thankfulness-1200x675-1.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/11\/literal-hell-stoic-negative-visualization-gratitude-thankfulness-1200x675-1.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10127,"url":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/2019\/04\/22\/earth-day-thoughts-for-a-mediascaped-planet\/","url_meta":{"origin":11159,"position":1},"title":"Earth Day thoughts for a mediascaped planet…","author":"Adrian J Ivakhiv","date":"April 22, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"I've been posting about the Ukrainian presidential runoff elections over at UKR-TAZ, the blog I established in the wake of the 2014 Maidan revolution. (See Four theses on Ukrainian politics and Politics as reality-FB.) The gist of my comments is relevant to the study of social media's impacts on political\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Media ecology"","block_context":{"text":"Media ecology","link":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/category\/media_ecology\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2019\/04\/640x360.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2019\/04\/640x360.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2019\/04\/640x360.jpeg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13767,"url":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/2024\/10\/15\/the-hurricane-conspiracy-complex\/","url_meta":{"origin":11159,"position":2},"title":"The hurricane conspiracy complex","author":"Adrian J Ivakhiv","date":"October 15, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The big question around these back-to-back hurricanes in the southeast U.S. is not why they are happening (that\u2019s easy enough to answer), but why so many people find it easier to believe they were artificially generated by the U.S. government, the \u201cdeep state,\u201d FEMA, industry, or some euphemistic \u201cthey\u201d (and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Climate change"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/category\/climate-politics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2024\/10\/image.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":10889,"url":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/2020\/07\/01\/diagnosing-trump-like-derangement-syndrome\/","url_meta":{"origin":11159,"position":3},"title":"Diagnosing Trump-like derangement syndrome","author":"Adrian J Ivakhiv","date":"July 1, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Covid-19 situation in the United States, which has become the epicenter of new infections because of its flawed and chaotic response to the pandemic, is seen by some around the world as an emergency case of its own, requiring some sort of defensive response by countries that could become\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Climate change"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/category\/climate-politics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/07\/2560.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/07\/2560.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/07\/2560.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/07\/2560.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/07\/2560.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11239,"url":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/2020\/11\/12\/i-am-become-death\/","url_meta":{"origin":11159,"position":4},"title":"“I am become Death…”","author":"Adrian J Ivakhiv","date":"November 12, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Trump's parting electoral tantrum puts the exclamation mark on the fundamental flaw of democracy that his presidency has revealed: that a poorly informed electorate can willingly choose its own demise (even as it recites platitudes to the contrary). Two institutions are most implicated in this flaw: public education and the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Politics"","block_context":{"text":"Politics","link":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/category\/politics_postpolitics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/11\/otoole_1-120320.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/11\/otoole_1-120320.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/11\/otoole_1-120320.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/11\/otoole_1-120320.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/11\/otoole_1-120320.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/files\/2020\/11\/otoole_1-120320.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9294,"url":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/2017\/06\/02\/trump-vs-the-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":11159,"position":5},"title":"Trump vs. the world","author":"Adrian J Ivakhiv","date":"June 2, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Trump's speech on his decision to pull out of the Paris climate accord included so many questionable statements, it's hard to know where to start. Fortunately, others have. Among the better fact-checks are the Washington Post's (this one\u00a0and\u00a0this one), FactCheck.org's, NPR's, PolitiFact's, and the\u00a0Huffington Post's. Foreign Policy's summary (which comes\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Climate change"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/category\/climate-politics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/99"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11159"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11159\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11164,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11159\/revisions\/11164"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uvm.edu\/aivakhiv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}