Of all the political analysts I trust in Ukraine, Volodymyr Ishchenko has been the most critical of the Maidan and the new government. While his views should be contextualized among others (some of which I have shared on this blog), he expresses concerns that should be taken seriously. The following is his summary of the “new order.”<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Ukraine has not experienced a genuine revolution, merely a change of elites<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n by Volodymyr Ishchenko<\/p>\n Two popular labels are being ascribed to events in Ukraine:\u00a0it was either a democratic —\u00a0or even social —\u00a0revolution, or it was\u00a0a rightwing\u00a0—\u00a0or even neo-Nazi —\u00a0coup. In\u00a0fact, both characterisations are wrong. What we have have seen is\u00a0a mass rebellion, overwhelmingly supported in western and central Ukraine without majority support in the eastern and southern regions, leading to a change of\u00a0political elites. But there are no prospects for democratic, radical change, at least under the\u00a0new government.Why was it\u00a0neither a social, nor democratic revolution? Some of the demands of the Maidan movement have been implemented. For example, the notorious Berkut regiment\u00a0\u2013\u00a0the riot police who killed most of the dead protesters\u00a0\u2013 was disbanded and the most odious of\u00a0the former Yanukovych officials have been sacked.<\/p>\n However, this does not mean the start\u00a0of systematic democratic change, or that the new government is in any way going to\u00a0challenge the root of pervasive corruption in Ukraine: poverty and inequality. Moreover, it is likely only to aggravate these problems, putting the burden of the economic crisis on the shoulders of Ukraine’s poor, not on the rich\u00a0Ukrainian oligarchs.<\/p>\n The socioeconomic demands of the Maidan movement have been replaced with the neoliberal agenda of the\u00a0new government. The cabinet, approved on Thursday, consists mainly\u00a0of neoliberals and nationalists. Its official programme of\u00a0action presented to parliament declares the need\u00a0for “unpopular decisions” on prices and tariffs and its\u00a0readiness to fulfill all the conditions of the\u00a0loan from theInternational Monetary Fund.<\/p>\n The IMF’s requirements to freeze wages and hike gas\u00a0prices was one of\u00a0the reasons why the former government suspended negotiations on an EU association agreement. No wonder so many people arecalling the new\u00a0administration the“government of\u00a0suicides”<\/a>.<\/a> It is not\u00a0hard to forecast mass disappointment with\u00a0these antisocial policies and a\u00a0collapse of the\u00a0currency, further impoverishing ordinary Ukrainians.<\/p>\n The far right has also achieved a major breakthrough in the government. Some commentators have warned that their\u00a0level of representation in the\u00a0new Ukrainian government is unparalleled in Europe. The xenophobic Svoboda party controls the posts\u00a0of deputy prime minister, ministers of defence,ecology, agriculture and the prosecutor general’s office.\u00a0<\/a>\u00a0Andriy Parubiy<\/a>,<\/a> one of the founders of the Social-National Party of\u00a0Ukraine and a former leader of its\u00a0paramilitary youth organisation, who\u00a0later\u00a0joined the moderate Batkivshchyna party and efficiently\u00a0commanded self-defence forces\u00a0in Maidan, is now the head of\u00a0the national security and defense council.<\/p>\n At the same time, the protest badly fits into the coup\u00a0label of a well-planned armed seizure\u00a0of power. The Maidan movement, particularly its paramilitary arm, was\u00a0hardly controlled by the parliamentary parties. In fact, these\u00a0parties were regularly trying to pacify the movement, urging compromises with Yanukovych, albeit\u00a0without much success.<\/p>\n What is most worrying is\u00a0that the new government cannot control the infamous\u00a0<\/a>Right Sector\u00a0<\/a>.<\/a> Its members are now popular heroes, the\u00a0vanguard of the victorious “revolution”. They have\u00a0guns captured from police departments in the western regions and now, after Yanukovych’s toppling, are demanding that the revolution needs to\u00a0continue against “corrupt democracy” and liberalism. The liberals celebrating their decisiveness and crucial role in\u00a0the Maidan movement are now discovering the\u00a0right’s reactionary ideas. Recently, the press\u00a0secretary of the Right Sector gave an\u00a0interview saying “we need to tell Europe the\u00a0right way to go” and save it from the\u00a0“terrible situation” of “total liberalism”, when people don’t go to church and are\u00a0tolerant of lesbian, gay bisexual and transgender rights. It is too\u00a0soon for the Right Sector\u00a0to move against the new government\u00a0—\u00a0it lacks the support. But the group may lead a new insurrection in the\u00a0event of a\u00a0rapid and deepening economic crisis. In the absence of any strong leftist force\u00a0in Ukraine, social grievances will be whipped up by rightwing populists.<\/p>\n At the same time, the leading role of radical Ukrainian nationalists in potential new “social Maidan” will preclude any all-national movement against the ruling class, with\u00a0mass participation from the\u00a0east and the south of culturally divided Ukraine. Moreover, they even amplify separatist attitudes and attempts of pro-Russian provocations, as we have seen in\u00a0<\/a>Crimea<\/a>.<\/a>\u00a0The full-scale civil war,\u00a0although not inevitable, is a real threat now.<\/p>\n In this situation, the best policy for the west would be to insist\u00a0on the peaceful resolution of the interregional conflicts in Ukraine, taking a\u00a0strong position against participation of the\u00a0far right in the\u00a0new government and uncontrolled rightist paramilitaries on the\u00a0streets. Last but not\u00a0least, the west couldoffer unconditional help to Ukraine by\u00a0cancelling its foreign debt\u00a0\u2013\u00a0a popular demand raised by manyprogressive movements all\u00a0over the world.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Of all the political analysts I trust in Ukraine, Volodymyr Ishchenko has been the most critical of the Maidan and the new government. While his views should be contextualized among others (some of which I have shared on this blog), he expresses concerns that should be taken seriously. 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